Deals to be done
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An exciting time is upon us.
We are bearing witness to a transition in global power. One that has been building for years, accelerated by a miscalculation at the highest level, where the attempt to weaken an adversary produced a more dangerous one.
No country or company is immune. And in that, if you're willing to look for it, lies the opportunity.
The crescendo moment is closer than it's ever been.
Economic pressure is more equally felt than at any point in recent memory. And when a way of life feels genuinely under threat, something important becomes possible: the kind of change that, in calmer times, would take a decade to negotiate takes months. Sometimes weeks.
At the time of writing, rising fuel prices are the most visible marker of that threat. Fuel availability is the next horizon. After that, fertiliser and with it, the capacity to produce food at the scale the world depends on.
These are not abstract risks.
They are the conditions that sharpen the mind of every CEO and government leader who is paying attention.
They clarify what needs to evolve.
They reveal where incentives must flow differently in the world that is taking shape.
They also reveal something else.
There are deals to be done.
The Transition Deal Framework
Not all deals are created equal. And in a moment like this one, the difference between a good deal and the right deal comes down to knowing which tier you're operating in.
Experience tells me that most business leaders, when the pressure is on, default to one type of deal: the urgent one. The deal that keeps things moving. That instinct is right, but it's also incomplete.
There are three tiers of deal worth making right now, and the leaders who will emerge from this transition in the strongest position are the ones thinking across all three simultaneously.
Tier 1: Floor deals (Protect the non-negotiables)
Floor deals are the ones that keep a way of life intact. For a nation, that means continuity in food production, fuel supply, healthcare, education. For a business, it means the relationships, inputs and capabilities without which you simply cannot operate.
These deals are often expensive.
New partners entering the frame in a moment of disruption know their leverage and will price accordingly. But cost is rarely the only currency available. There are ways to make a new partnership worth a partner's while beyond a higher price including access, long-term commitment and co-investment. The leaders who see this clearly move faster and pay less than those who arrive at the table with only a chequebook.
Question for you: What are the two or three things in your business that cannot stop and who do you need at the table to make sure they don't?
Tier 2: Foundation deals (Rebuild what was outsourced)
Foundation deals are about resilience, and they go well beyond stockpiling. They are about rebuilding capability that may once have existed closer to home. These are capabilities in your supply chain, in your team and in your infrastructure, but they were gradually moved elsewhere in the name of efficiency.
Efficiency made sense when the world was stable. It makes less sense now.
This is the tier where the work is hardest and the payoff is least visible in the short term. But it is also where the compounding begins. Every capability you rebuild reduces your exposure at the Floor level. Every dependency you reduce gives you more room to move at the next tier, the Forward level.
Question for you: Where have you traded resilience for efficiency and is that trade still worth making?
Tier 3: Forward deals (Choose who you grow with next)
Forward deals are the ones that define the next chapter. These are not just new commercial relationships; they are strategic alignments. They signal who you are building with, and by extension, who you are becoming.
At a national level, Forward deals mean new trade partnerships, new alliances, a conscious reorientation toward the relationships that will matter in the world being built rather than the one that is passing.
For a business, the logic is the same. The partners, markets and ecosystems you commit to now will shape your options for the next decade.
These deals also require a willingness to let some old alignments loosen, not in the name of disloyalty but in the name of strategy.
Question for you: Who are the partners you want to be growing with in five years and have you told them that yet?
Finding the Money
There is an obvious objection to everything above.
Floor deals are expensive. Foundation deals take time and capital. Forward deals require a level of strategic generosity that feels hard to justify when margins are tight and the environment is uncertain.
So where does the money come from?
Experience tells me the answer is almost always the same: you look for the assets you've been under-pricing.
Every business I've worked with, and every economy I've watched navigate a transition moment, has them. Assets that generate real value for others but haven't been priced to reflect that value.
These include capabilities that are quietly remarkable but have never been positioned as such, relationships that others would pay a premium to access and intellectual property sitting on a shelf.
In calmer times, under-pricing is a habit that goes unexamined. In a transition moment, it becomes visible and correctable.
The clearest example of this playing out at a national level is right here in Australia.
According to research by The Australia Institute, Australia has missed out on an estimated $63 to $68 billion in revenue since July 2022 by not applying a modest tax on LNG exports.
To put that in context: the 2025–26 federal budget projects an underlying cash deficit of $42.1 billion. We are, in other words, sitting on an underpriced asset whose proper valuation would more than close the gap.
The LNG isn't new. The value was always there. What changed was the moment, and with it, the permission to look at the asset differently.
This is not a political argument. It is a structural one. And it applies directly to your business.
Transition moments create permission to reprice. The pressure that makes everything harder also makes it easier to have conversations that were previously too uncomfortable, too disruptive or too ambitious to pursue.
Customers who once pushed back on price increases accept them when the context is clear.
Partners who once expected favourable terms come to the table differently when the landscape has shifted.
Boards that once resisted investment in resilience start asking why it hasn't happened sooner.
Question for you: What are you sitting on that you haven't priced properly and what would it mean for your capacity to deal if you did?
Where Does Your Business Fit?
There is a version of this moment where business leaders watch the geopolitical reshaping from a distance. They track the news, monitor the supply chain alerts and wait for stability to return before making meaningful moves.
That version is a mistake.
The businesses that will look back on this period as a turning point are the ones that asked a different question. Not when will things settle down? But, where do we fit in what's being built?
Because here is what transition moments make possible that stability rarely does: the chance to matter at a scale beyond your immediate market.
Floor deals need participants.
Foundation deals need builders.
Forward deals need partners with conviction.
Your business, regardless of size or sector, has a role to play in at least one of these tiers and probably more than one.
The leaders I admire most in moments like this are not the ones who move fastest. They are the ones who are clearest about which tier they are operating in, what they are trying to protect, what they are trying to build and who they want to become.
That clarity, more than capital or connections, is what makes the right deals possible.
So, as you think about the weeks and months ahead, the headlines, the pressures, the conversations you're putting off, I'd invite you to sit with these three questions:
Which of your current deals are Floor deals in disguise and are you treating them with the seriousness they deserve?
Where have you outsourced resilience in the name of efficiency and is it time to start buying it back?
Who are the Forward partners you haven't called yet?
The world is being renegotiated.
That is uncomfortable.
It is also, if you're willing to see it that way, an invitation.
There are deals to be done.
So, what's the deal you've been putting off?
Let me know here.
From The Partnership Playbook Podcast
Here are this week’s podcast episodes for your walk, commute or workout.
LEADERSHIP MOMENTS
EP 185 - 16 min: Why your culture probably isn’t what you think it is. Do you actually know what it feels like to work in your company or do you only know what it feels like to lead it? In this episode you’ll learn why seniority distorts your view of culture, the hidden gap between intended culture and lived experience and a simple quarterly practice to hear what your business really feels like. Listen on Apple Podcasts | Spotify
EP 183 - 15 min: Are you still the right GTM leader for this stage? The playbook that made you successful can quietly become the reason you plateau. In this episode I share why strong GTM leaders often stall not because they’re underperforming, but because they’re over-attached to an old commercial model, and how to spot the gap between the motion you’re confident leading and the one the business now needs. Listen on Apple Podcasts | Spotify
CEO INTERVIEW
EP 184 - 53 min: The HRT patch story that’s being rewritten by Raisa Monteiro PhD and Johanna Wicks. Most leaders underestimate how broken systems quietly kill opportunity. In women’s health, particularly in hormone replacement therapy and the transdermal patches that deliver this medication, outdated innovation, supply chain failures, and misaligned incentives have created massive gaps, and even bigger opportunities for those who see them. Listen on Apple Podcasts | Spotify
When you're ready, there are three ways I can help you:
1. CEO Coaching: For CEO’s who want to lead with clarity and grow their business without sacrificing what matters most. A tailored 12-session experience with three interconnected elements: scaling you as a leader, elevating how you lead others, and creating conditions for sustainable business growth.
2. The Partnership Lab: A 6-week experience for founders, CEOs, and GTM leaders who are done with slow growth and stalled conversations. Learn to rapidly qualify and prioritise high-value partners, Install a system that turns conversations into contracts and capture outsized returns from partnerships that scale. Apply to join the next cohort today!
3. Leadership Events: From Cochlear and Lifeblood to military leaders, I have shared inspiring stories and practical frameworks and insights that shift how leaders leverage partnerships for growth. Book me to speak at your next conference, offsite, or leadership event.
Looking for something different? Send me an email.
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